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Extreme Levels of Work for Gold Ratio :: The Market Oracle ::

The gold price has been on a long, slow decline since 2013, and it’s been a wild ride for investors.

Understanding the Gold Price Cycle

The gold price has been known to follow a cyclical pattern, with prices fluctuating over time due to various factors such as supply and demand, inflation, and economic conditions. This cycle is often referred to as the “gold price cycle” or “gold price wave.” Understanding this cycle is crucial for investors who want to make informed decisions about investing in gold.

Key Factors Influencing the Gold Price Cycle

  • Supply and Demand: The gold price is influenced by the balance between supply and demand. When demand is high and supply is low, prices tend to rise. Conversely, when demand is low and supply is high, prices tend to fall. Inflation: Inflation can lead to an increase in the gold price as investors seek safe-haven assets to protect their purchasing power. Economic Conditions: Economic conditions such as recession, war, or political instability can lead to an increase in the gold price as investors seek safe-haven assets. ## The 1980 Peak and the 2011 Nominal High**
  • The 1980 Peak and the 2011 Nominal High

    The gold price peaked in 1980, with prices reaching $850 per ounce. This was a significant peak, but it was not the only time the gold price reached new nominal highs. In 2011, the gold price reached $1,921 per ounce, which was a new nominal high.

    Factors Contributing to the 1980 Peak

  • Monetary Policy: The 1970s saw a significant increase in inflation, which led to a decrease in the value of the US dollar. This, in turn, led to an increase in the gold price.

    The RSI Indicator: A Tool for Identifying Overbought Conditions

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a popular technical indicator used in finance to measure the magnitude of recent price changes to determine overbought or oversold conditions. Developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. in 1978, the RSI is calculated based on the average gain and loss of a security over a specified period, usually 14 days.

    How the RSI Works

    The RSI is calculated by taking the average of the positive and negative gains over the specified period. The resulting value is then plotted against the price action of the security.

    The reversal was profound because it was a reversal of a trend that had been in place for several months.

    The Trend Reversal

    The trend reversal was not just a simple correction; it was a complete reversal of the trend that had been in place for several months. This trend had been driven by a combination of factors, including:

  • Increased demand for safe-haven assets: As the global economy continued to slow down, investors sought refuge in gold as a safe-haven asset. Central bank buying: Central banks around the world, including the US Federal Reserve, continued to buy gold as part of their monetary policy. Decreasing interest rates: The decrease in interest rates made gold more attractive as an alternative investment. ## The Reversal*
  • The Reversal

    The reversal was triggered by a combination of factors, including:

  • Increased supply of gold: The discovery of new gold deposits and the increase in gold production from existing mines contributed to the increase in gold supply.

    Here’s why.

    The Gold Rally Myth

    The idea that gold will always rise in times of economic uncertainty is a widespread myth.

    Market Expectations

    The FOMC’s decision on interest rates is a crucial event that can significantly impact the markets. The market expectations are divided, with some analysts predicting a rate cut and others expecting no change. The Federal Reserve has been gradually reducing interest rates since July, and this trend is expected to continue.

    The Mining Industry: A Sector in Turmoil

    The mining industry has been facing significant challenges in recent years, and these challenges are likely to continue in the coming months. The sector has been plagued by high production costs, declining commodity prices, and increasing regulatory pressures.

    High Production Costs

    One of the major challenges facing the mining industry is high production costs.

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    Przemyslaw Radomski Archive

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