Gold prices are expected to rise further in 2025, with Goldman Sachs and UBS issuing new bullish calls for the precious metal, citing strong central bank demand and the need for investors to hedge against recession and geopolitical risks. The two investment banks are predicting even higher prices for gold in the coming years, with some analysts forecasting a rally to $3,700 an ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026.
Gold prices surged 6.6% last week, reaching a fresh record above $3,245 an ounce on Monday. This upward momentum is expected to continue, with the two banks issuing their latest outlook upgrades in an environment of uncertainty, which is driving demand for gold as a hedge against recession and geopolitical risks.
The Goldman Sachs analysts, including Lina Thomas, now see gold rallying to $3,700 an ounce by the end of 2025, while UBS strategist Joni Teves is predicting a price of $3,500 an ounce by December 2025. The two banks have a strong bullish consensus on bullion, and their latest outlook upgrades signal that gold prices are expected to continue to rise in the coming years.
The latest bullish calls come after the two banks issued their previous outlook upgrades in March, signaling strong consensus on bullion in an environment of uncertainty. The Goldman analysts said official-sector purchases are likely to average about 80 tons per month this year, up from their previous estimate of 70 tons, and reiterated their long gold trade recommendation. Rising recession risks would also likely juice inflows into bullion-backed exchange traded funds, they added.
The Goldman analysts stated that recent flows have surprised to the upside, likely reflecting renewed investor demand in hedging against recession risk and declines in risk asset prices. They also said that the bank’s economists are now seeing a 45% chance of a recession, and if such a scenario does occur, “ETF inflows could accelerate further and lift gold prices to $3,880 an ounce by year-end.”
Meanwhile, UBS expects strong demand from various market segments, including central banks, long-term asset managers, macro funds, private wealth, and retail investors. The bank’s strategist, Joni Teves, said that shifting global trade and geopolitical backdrops reinforce the need to allocate into havens. She also noted that market positioning is not yet overly crowded, with room for further gold exposure.
Teves emphasized that gold’s investor base has broadened since the financial shock of 2008. “Persistent uncertainty boosts the need to diversify portfolios, benefiting gold,” she wrote. The bank’s strategist also highlighted that thinner liquidity conditions, partly due to limited mine supply growth and the large amounts of gold tied up in central bank reserves and ETF holdings, could help to exaggerate price moves.
A table summarizing the predictions made by Goldman Sachs and UBS is as follows:

In conclusion, the bullish calls from Goldman Sachs and UBS suggest that gold prices are expected to rise further in 2025, driven by strong central bank demand and the need for investors to hedge against recession and geopolitical risks.