As the World Navigates Turbulence in 2025
The current state of the global economy is one of uncertainty, and the world is at a crossroads. The contrast between Bitcoin and gold is stark, with gold reaching an all-time high of USD 3,000 per ounce and Bitcoin struggling to regain its footing after a -32% correction. Bitcoin’s Resilience
Despite being heavily speculation-driven and correlated with U.S. tech stocks, Bitcoin has shown resilience in recent months. The past three months have seen notable progress in institutional adoption and positive regulatory developments. However, the correction from its peak of USD 109,356 on January 20th has been significant, with the price now at a five-month low of USD 74,434. The Gap in Bitcoin Futures
One positive sign for Bitcoin is the closure of the gap in its futures market. This gap was closed earlier this week, and Bitcoin futures are now hovering around the 200-day moving average of USD 78,855. If the stock market stabilizes and mounts a broader recovery, the crypto sector could see brighter days. Ethereum’s Underperformance
Ethereum, on the other hand, has underperformed dramatically, falling short of its 2021 all-time high of USD 4,864. The correction over the past three-and-a-half months has pushed Ethereum down to a low of USD 1,411. Against Bitcoin, Ethereum is trading at a five-year low. Technical Analysis
The weekly chart of Bitcoin shows a bearish trend, but the stochastic oscillator is oversold and attempting to turn upward. A convincing trend reversal is not yet visible, but a significant recovery is possible if the stochastic oscillator flashes a new buy signal. Bitcoin Sentiment
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 18 out of 100, signaling that sentiment is at rock bottom and pure panic has gripped crypto enthusiasts. This has created a clear contrarian buy signal for Bitcoin. Seasonality
The seasonal pattern for Bitcoin is extremely positive through June. Historically, Bitcoin has posted significant gains from spring through mid-June. Combined with the deeply oversold conditions on both weekly and daily charts, plus panicked sentiment, the setup is exceptionally promising. Sound Money – Bitcoin vs. Gold
The Bitcoin/Gold ratio is currently at 25.24, reflecting a -38% decline in Bitcoin’s value against gold since mid-December. However, the ratio is deeply oversold, and a trend reversal is not yet visible. The next support for the ratio lies at around 22 – 23. Macro Update
China’s Gold Strategy
China’s massive purchases of gold are pressuring the Anglo-Saxon paper-gold fraud system. With prices above USD 3,000, gold is overvalued relative to silver and oil, but the reason is clear. Gold is reclaiming its status as the ultimate store of value amid economic uncertainty and distrust in fiat currencies. Bitcoin and Gold
Bitcoin shares some traits with gold but fits only partially into its narrative. Both aim to serve as alternatives to inflationary fiat currencies and are touted by advocates as hedges against currency devaluation. However, gold is physical, universally accepted, requires no electricity or internet, and boasts a millennia-long history as a medium of exchange and store of value. Bitcoin, a digital innovation, feels abstract by comparison. Bitcoin Complements Gold
Bitcoin complements rather than competes with gold. As long as stock markets remain under pressure and central banks stay sidelined, Bitcoin’s road ahead looks bumpy. However, the current setup offers significant contrarian opportunities for Bitcoin if stocks rebound. Key Points:

• Bitcoin has shown resilience despite being heavily speculation-driven and correlated with U.S. tech stocks.
• The gap in Bitcoin futures has been closed, and the price is hovering around the 200-day moving average.
• Ethereum has underperformed dramatically, falling short of its 2021 all-time high.
• The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 18 out of 100, signaling that sentiment is at rock bottom and pure panic has gripped crypto enthusiasts.
• The seasonal pattern for Bitcoin is extremely positive through June.
• The Bitcoin/Gold ratio is deeply oversold, but a trend reversal is not yet visible.

Bitcoin’s Technical Analysis

Bitcoin’s Seasonality

In conclusion, Bitcoin faces a complex mix of macroeconomic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and collapsed stock markets. Signs of an impending trend reversal are emerging, supported by oversold technicals and favorable seasonality. However, its reliance on U.S. equity markets and Ethereum’s glaring weakness cloud the outlook. The recent correction to a five-month low of USD 74,434 reflects this uncertainty, while gold solidifies its role as a stable store of value amid rising geopolitical risks. Bitcoin remains a speculative player that has yet to cement its status as “digital gold.” Gold, bolstered by China’s massive purchases and a global economy distancing itself from U.S. dollar dominance, outshines all as “the only true money” these days. Bitcoin, meanwhile, grapples with volatility and limited acceptance as a payment medium.